Iran by far is the most free thinking democratic nation in the Muslim world. Being the most literate and educated population in the Muslim middle east, it is not a surprise as free thought resides in the notion of being self aware. Even under an Islamic regime that asserts itself in draconian ways, and where real power rests with the clerics, the fact that they elect a president via an act of plebiscite, is admirable. So when this minuscule expression of people power inside a virtual Sharia dictatorship was taken away, everything was bound to come crashing down, and it did.
Two thirds of Iran's population is under the age of thirty. A manifestation of the massive human loss (1 million) suffered during its decade long war with Iraq. This demographic is desperate for change. Even though the regime has been overtly anti-American, the youth has been pro-American more so after Obama mystified the globe. And so they rallied behind Mir-Hossein Mousavi and the reformists, inspired by Obama's Cairo overture, hoping they would heed their call. One must not forget that Mousavi is no saint. He is part of the establishment that rules Iran and presided over the bloody war as Prime Minister while Ayatollah Khomeini sent young men, wave after wave, into battle. At this point in time Mousavi is dissenting along with other powerful "reformists" asking for change in the way Iran is governed. And that is seen as a threat to the establishment who want the old boys club to rule forever. Hence the stolen election and the aftermath.
If you have never traveled to Iran and have not kept up with the evolution of that nation, to understand what it is like to live in Iran and be Iranian, I recommend watching two films. Abbas Kiarostami's masterpiece "Ten" and Marjane Satrapi's "Persepolis". In subtle ways both films explore the deep desires of a free thinking, modern society which is kept under wraps by an imposed regime which demands obedience to the limits of absurdity.
History has demonstrated time and again, when people rise up to reclaim what is theirs, blood stains the streets. Iranians have shed their fair share in these past weeks. The killing of Neda Soltani, a student whose gruesome last moments were captured on video and posted on "youtube" for the world to see, has transformed the nature of the uprising to more than just a stolen election. Her death has become a defining moment which will always symbolize this moment for posterity. Much like the image of the nameless Chinese man in front of a row of army tanks has come to visualize the Tienanmen Sqaure pro-democracy uprising. While a few foreign journalists with cameras were able to bring that image to the world in 1989, ten years later the uncontainable nature of the internet proved much more lethal. Demonstrating the true democratic power of this technology we have come to take for granted.
While the regime regains control and Iran drops out of the headlines overrun by Michael Jackson and Obama sets the tone for the world in dealing with Iran, one thing cannot be denied. A fissure has opened among the power brokers of Iran. While Ahmednijad blames Obama and the west for the chaos (his only defense), he cannot ignore the diversity of the demographic that filled the streets asking for the truth. When the dust settles my forecast is that Iran can go one of two ways. It can clamp down and become a militaristic reclusive regime like North Korea or transform into China. The power brokers could settle their disputes and offer just enough consumerism to their population so that their transgressions would be ignored. The question remains, if Iran begins to become China will the west sweep everything under the carpet and return to business as usual or will it still hold the regime accountable. So far Mousavi is not backing down and the world is waiting. My hope is for Iran to become the Poland of 1989 and not China. But, it is what it is.
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